Target probability
For a selected target multiplier m, a simplified model can set a reach probability near 0.96 / m. If reached, a 1-credit prediction returns m credits; therefore EV ≈ (0.96/m) × m − 1 = −0.04.
ORBIT CALL · MECHANICS & TESTING
RTP is a long-run model, not a round promise.
The prototype uses a simplified target-reach model. It is documentation for discussion and simulation, not a certified production math model.
THEORETICAL RTP TARGET96.00%
THEORETICAL HOUSE EDGE4.00%
PROTOTYPE CURRENCYVirtual credits
Why results vary
Actual RTP over a short sequence can sit far above or below 96%. Variance depends on stakes, targets, round count and payout distribution. More independent rounds narrow the observed result around the theoretical expectation, but never guarantee it.
Production controls
A real-money release needs independently generated and auditable outcomes, published rules, stake and payout limits, exposure monitoring, simulations and the required certification and legal review.
Testing methodology
- Freeze the rule set, payout table and maximum exposure assumptions.
- Run deterministic test cases for every settlement boundary and cancellation path.
- Simulate high-volume independent rounds; report RTP, confidence intervals, hit rate and maximum drawdown.
- Reconcile every round event, player selection and settlement with an audit trail.